The Cowlitz Indian Tribe and the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs expect their ventures to reap a combined $665 million a year, surpassing the gambling at all nine of Oregon's tribal casinos.

Those projections don't faze economists, who agree the lucrative Portland-Vancouver market has plenty of room to grow. And after years of talk, both tribes have cleared critical regulatory hurdles, paving the way for possible federal approval as early as 2007.

"We're not anywhere close to saturation," says Portland economist Robert Whelan with ECONorthwest, who studies gambling for tribal casinos, cities and lotteries. "Gambling isn't new here. This isn't Alabama or Utah."

Library-loving, tree-friendly Portlanders may shudder at sharing their turf with such a crass cash cow. But judging from the dozen tribal casinos ringing Puget Sound, the urban Northwest already co-exists with all-you-can-eat buffets and flashing slot machines.

At the same time, the Cowlitz casino in Clark County could alter the one-way tide of Washington money that flows into Oregon and jump-start development across the river.

In La Center, Wash., the Cowlitz plans to build a casino resort rivaling the size of the Oregon Convention Center. It would sit next to an Interstate 5 exit on a pasture 16 miles north of Portland -- passed every weekday by 63,000 vehicles.

In the forested Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Area, the Warm Springs envisions a low-slung "riverfront destination" the size of four Costco warehouses. Tribal leaders would build a new Interstate 84 interchange to handle an expected 3 million annual visitors.

The two projects face significant hurdles, including a political climate that's growing hostile to urban casinos. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and others in Congress have introduced proposals to curb casinos on newly restored reservation or off-reservation land, which could slow or block the Cowlitz and Warm Springs plans.

Both tribes also must satisfy a lengthy to-do list and weather aggressive opponents -- including conservationists horrified by a gambling complex in the sensitive gorge -- before they receive building approval from the U.S. interior secretary.

A ripe market

Casino entrepreneurs for years have coveted the Portland-Vancouver market and its 2 million people.

The Confederated Tribes of Grand Ronde, which operates the Spirit Mountain Casino 60 miles southwest of Portland, has tried unsuccessfully to build a hotel and baseball stadium in exchange for a casino in the city. The Yakama Nation, based in south-central Washington, purports to have casino-ready lands near Portland. And two Lake Oswego men have filed an initiative petition that would ask Oregon voters to endorse a casino in the eastside suburbs.

If built, the Cowlitz and Warm Springs casinos would command a significant spot in the nation's rapidly expanding $19.6 billion tribal gambling industry.

The tribes won't disclose their market research, but the driving factors are familiar to any retailer.

"Location, potential customer base, demographics, competition, how close is the competition, what do they offer, what's the size of those facilities," as well as the region's propensity for gambling, says economist Alan Meister of the Analysis Group in Los Angeles, author of the annual Indian Gaming Report.

The appetite exists, analysts agree.

In Washington, revenue from all gambling sources topped $1.7 billion last year, including $1 billion from 24 tribal casinos, according to the state gambling commission.

Oregon reported nearly $1.2 billion in gambling in 2004, including an estimated $420 million at Oregon's tribal casinos, says Whelan, the Portland economist. That translates to Oregonians spending about $350 on gambling per capita -- not even half the amount that typically saturates the market, he says.

The Grand Ronde say about 40 percent of visitors to its casino hail from Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas counties.

Another example of gambling fever: Locals accounted for a quarter of a million flights between Portland International Airport and Las Vegas in 2004, beating out places such as Boston and Washington, D.C., reports the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.

Different approaches

The Cowlitz says the casino would bring it self-sufficiency. With 20 percent unemployment among members, the casino would create jobs not only for the Cowlitz but also others in Southwest Washington. Tribal leaders also propose that casino proceeds would pay for scholarships as well as housing for elderly tribal members.

The glass-encased Cowlitz casino resort would be down the road from four cardrooms that have established La Center as a haven for legalized betting.

Cowlitz leaders started pushing a casino after securing federal recognition in 2002, fueling criticism that the tribe was solely interested in making money. It didn't help that David Barnett, son of Cowlitz Chairman John Barnett, brought in the wealthy Mohegan Tribe to finance the venture.

The Mohegan Tribal Gaming Authority operates the 3 million-square-foot Mohegan Sun casino in Connecticut -- the second-largest casino in the nation. Its business operations, which include a WNBA basketball team, brought in $1.3 billion last year.

Although some in Clark County have agreed to support the venture -- in exchange for a cut of the revenue -- opponents include a wealthy philanthropist, a state senator and the publisher of The Columbian newspaper in Vancouver. They argue that La Center is at least 40 miles south of the tribe's historical homeland. Cowlitz members disagree, saying the tribe hunted and fished throughout Southwest Washington for generations.

The Warm Springs, whose members have fished and hunted in the gorge for thousands of years, opted for a less glitzy design with clustered buildings resembling a historical river village.

For nearly a decade, leaders have lobbied for a casino that would tap the Portland market, reverse high unemployment among their members and revive a declining revenue base.

Local officials opposed the Warm Springs' initial plans to build on trust land outside Hood River, prompting leaders to eye an industrial patch in barren Cascade Locks, where officials embraced the idea of casino jobs.

Last spring, Gov. Ted Kulongoski, a Democrat, approved the Cascade Locks site, preferring it to the sensitive Hood River location. The Warm Springs agreed to protect their Hood River land from development and pledged a portion of their revenue for education and salmon restoration programs.

That hasn't been enough, however, to squelch opposition from conservation groups, video lottery retailers and the Grand Ronde. They are lobbying against federal approval.

Obstacles

Congress passed the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act in 1988, limiting tribal casinos to reservation and other trust land. It's tougher for a tribe to get federal approval for an off-reservation casino, as in the case of the Warm Springs, than for a newly recognized tribe such as the Cowlitz seeking a casino on its first reservation.

U.S. Interior Secretary Gale Norton, who makes the final decision on tribal casinos, has been reluctant to approve off-reservation ventures.

Warm Springs leaders are optimistic, saying they have support from local officials and U.S. Rep. Greg Walden, R-Ore. They also have a historic connection to the site, which tribal leaders ceded to the federal government in an 1855 treaty. But only three such requests have been granted since the 1988 law.

Nationally, more tribes are trying to move closer to urban hubs, causing friction within Indian country, upsetting communities and prompting action on Capitol Hill. McCain plans to hold Senate hearings on a bill that would make it even more arduous to build casinos on off-reservation or newly acquired land. In the House, Rep. Richard Pombo, R-Calif., introduced a proposal requiring local governments and legislatures to approve new casinos.

Cowlitz and Warm Springs tribal leaders view such restrictions as a threat to their sovereignty and have requested that any new law exempt them.

It's too soon to know how big casinos would change the metro area, says Ethan Seltzer, director of the School of Urban Studies and Planning at Portland State University.

The resorts probably would divert dollars from lottery retailers and other entertainment, but they also could spur fewer locals to gamble in Nevada and attract more out-of-staters to Portland and Vancouver.

"A casino by itself is like a pebble in a big pond," he says. "But if what begins to emerge around the casino is a major kind of complex of shopping and retail and other entertainment venues, then it becomes a major new growth center."

One Portland official is worried about a casino on the other side of the Columbia River, saying a La Center resort would suck money out of Oregon and stick it with all the negatives that accompany problem gambling.

City Commissioner Sam Adams says Portland area officials either need to start negotiating with the tribes for a piece of the action to help offset social costs or work to oppose the ventures.

"Otherwise it's all downside for us. Transportation headaches, the impacts on families and poor people, and more money fleeing the metro area.

"It's important we start talking about the impacts," he says, "of being surrounded by these places."